Home Publications Shareholder Opinion Shareholder Opinion: Novices in shark-infested waters of a murky recovery
Shareholder Opinion: Novices in shark-infested waters of a murky recovery PDF Print E-mail

Following a recession we barely had, and a market recovery so quick that one wonders if the lessons taught will actually be heeded, there is a good chance that a raft of novice investors will enter the market in the next year.

But they are entering shark-infested waters. The number of service providers seeking to extract fees, charges, subscriptions and commissions continues to grow, as do the messages to novices that investment success revolves around trading regularly. Active trading plays into the hands of most for-profit service providers.

Brokers charge a fee for each trade (as does the Australian Securities Exchange), so encouraging more trades is a good strategy for them.

For the investor, the per-trade fees make it harder, not easier, to beat the market.

Similarly, sharemarket tip sheets and newsletters need to keep their advice flowing in order for subscribers to have something to read. This has led most, but not all, to provide a constant outpouring of buy and sell recommendations in each edition. Often, accountability is low and, almost invariably, newsletter performance returns are quoted on a misleading, "before brokerage and subscription" basis. Software providers are typically the most evolved when it comes to marketing a product of little value at an exorbitant price.

After the free introductory seminar in which slick salesmen wow the audience with technical analysis mumbo jumbo and carefully worded promises of profitability, comes the hard sell to extract thousands of dollars from investors. There are some reputable software providers that avoid such high-pressure marketing. However, they are few and far between. Ongoing training is costly, too, as are the daily data downloads and other services of questionable quality or utility.

The result is that, even should a profitable system be found, upfront, ongoing and transaction costs would be likely to either cancel out the gains or make it not worth one's while.

Another worrying aspect relating to the promotion of constant trading is the pressure on novice investors to dive into high-risk derivative and Contract for Difference (CFD) trading. CFDs are promoted to novice investors because they tend not to grasp the risk/return dynamic. More experienced investors with a better understanding of the attendant risks tend to stay away from CFDs, or at the very least have no-one else to blame for their actions.

The field that best accommodates a strategy of high-volume trading, mechanical intelligence and dubious "services" is technical analysis.

The world of technical analysis appears to be overly laden with a dizzying array of jargon, with statistical concepts thrown in from time to time to provide an academic flavour, or simply to make it sound intelligent.

However, most concepts, the assumptions upon which they are based and the explanations of why they ought to result in outperformance, are thin at best.

There may be a number of technical analysts who have developed workable formulas for success. However, after fees, technical analysts as a group are likely to have the highest costs, and greatest underperformance.

Yet marketing, almost exclusively directed at retail investors, is substantial.

 

This article by Stuart Wilson, Chief Executive Officer of the Australian Shareholders' Association featured in his weekly Shareholder Opinion column in The Australian on Thursday, 5 November 2009.

 

Comments  

 
0 # Ellie Aird 2009-11-11 00:52 After reading the above,I would love to know who and which method gets a nod off approval?

I am really trying to learn with this question! It is all very well to springle doubt,but I think something in its place is appropriate here,cheers Ellie
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0 # Robert Winston 2009-11-12 18:40 I have been active on the asx for 30 years. Much more so since online trading became available. I have avoided paying for advice since realising my broker was thriving on churning me. I have taken up free sample offers of printed advice but never paid for it. I have 100% avoided the online advice industry. I read and listen to as much publicly available information as I can and take down notes. I have analysed my results before and after dropping professional advice. There was hardly any difference except for the saving in fees. From an initial nervous investment of $8000 I am now a confident though not infallable investor in property and shares. I have made much more from investing than I did from a lifetime of farming. I run my SMSF and at age 70 I enjoy comfort and confidence that comes with participation in the national economy. Reply | Reply with quote | Quote
 
 
+1 # Chris 2009-11-13 20:27 Ellie, I sadly think that you are on your own and that you have to develop 'a method that works for you' - because if there was 'a method' that worked, would anyone really reveal the secret ?! :)

Buffett has given a taster of his methods in his annual shareholders letters, but you only need to look at the vast array of books that people have written…people who believe they have cracked 'the secrets of how to invest' like him. Remember, all these books are probably based on the aforementioned and publicly available knowledge.

But if they had, why are there so many books ? And do we really think that Buffett would be so irresponsible to himself and to the financial market in general as to reveal 'his secrets' ?

A little knowledge is indeed a dangerous thing sometimes.
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